The wireless showdown of 2008.

The Wireless Showdown of 2008
by Devanshu Mehta
Nov 30, 2007

Until last year, the wireless space in the United States was fairly dull. The wireless carriers such as Verizon and AT&T owned your house, guarded the doors, sold you the locks, and kept the keys. This year, things started to change.

The megahertz are aligning in the wireless spectrum and fireworks are on the cards. In this corner of our triangular ring, we have Apple Corporation with a phone that rivaled Harry Potter as the news story of the year. In the other corner, we have the old guard—Verizon, AT&T, and others who will fight to protect a business model whose time has passed. Or is it yet to come? In the third corner we have the brash young upstart wannabe, Google as a wireless pretender. Google as a savior of the consumer. Google as the master of eyeballs, of clicks, of searches, of the database of our intentions dressed in rainbow shorts.

The referee for tonight is Mr. Kevin Martin of the Federal Communications Commission, the indirect representative of the people, that unpredictable arbiter of all that is digital, all that is analog, all that travels over wires, over the air, through the series of tubes.

In the audience, we have many friends, many enemies, and we have us. In the back of the arena, dressed in suits from the last century, we have other cellular device manufacturers. We can see that they are not quite sure who to put their money on, but that fear is what has prevented them from getting a shot at the title themselves. The fear of disturbing the status quo is what keeps them in the shadows. There we see Motorola whisper to Nokia, “What if Apple wins?” To which Nokia suggests an even more sinister possibility, “What if Apple loses?”

In the audience we also have software developers, web developers, and entrepreneurs of all stripes, but few of them are paying attention to the fight. They’re a cynical bunch. They’ve seen this fight before.

That leaves us. We sit in silence, in the dark. Nobody seems to ask our opinion, though we’ve paid good money for our seats. And we’ve paid good money to make each of these players worth more than many nations. We’re not sure who to root for. We fear change and we suffer from chronic apathy—maybe the old guard should win? We love to root for the underdog—maybe Rocky “Google” Balboa should knock the others out in the last round? But we’re a sucker for a pretty face—that gorgeous Apple and her svelte design—could we say no to her? Of course, we’re not even sure we can trust the referee.

Round 0—Why Now?

This year, Apple introduced the iPhone—the phone that challenged the fundamentals of the industry. If it is not yet, it has the potential of being the phone that opens the consumers’ eyes to the fact that the value is not in the carrier’s network, but in the devices and applications in their hand.

The FCC began the process for auctioning the 700MHz spectrum next year. In the wireless world, this is prime real estate. An incomplete analogy would be if the government was to auction off Central Park in Manhattan. The owner of this real estate could change the face of the wireless industry. Or an incumbent could buy it and sit on it to avoid rocking the boat to avoid allowing new competitors into the market.

And so 2008 is shaping up to be quite a year in the wireless industry. Two extreme outcomes are possible. We could end up with an Internet-like mobile industry where startups with crazy devices, crazy ideas, and crazier applications make use of the network in ways we have not thought of yet, from location-aware applications to mobile payment services. The other alternative is the walled-garden approach of the current wireless industry and of the cable industry where only approved content, from approved applications on approved devices, can pass.

Round 1—A Tangled Web
It’s a three-way fight, and three-way fights are the most fun. There can be alliances and betrayals and compromises are difficult, if not impossible.

Google has a strong relationship with Apple. They got YouTube and Google Maps on the iPhone and Google CEO Eric Schmidt is on the Apple board. On the other hand, Google is also working to take down the iPhone. With the new Android, they are trying to create an open, standards-based development environment for modern mobile devices. Developers could develop for one standard, without worrying about manufacturer quirks or carrier approvals. This is the diametrically opposite approach to the iPhone, though no one is claiming that only one can survive.

The old phone companies are working hard to preserve their walled-garden business model. AT&T has a strong relationship with Apple, with the exclusive iPhone deal that has brought many new customers (and a lot of attention) to AT&T. Of course, Apple also threatens these companies. The iPhone is the first device that shifts the balance of power from the hands of the carriers, such as AT&T, to the hands of the device manufacturer, Apple. People are starting to realize that the value of the wireless network (like the Internet) is not provided by the carrier, but by the devices and applications.

Finally, Google has a strong relationship with some of the communications establishment. They recently established the Open Handset Alliance to standardize the development platform for mobile devices around their Android technology. Sprint and T-Mobile are members of this alliance, working with Google on the platform. On the other hand, Google has challenged these companies to open up their wireless networks. In the upcoming FCC auction of the 700MHz spectrum, Google has pledged to bid at least $4.6 billion in the auction if their conditions for openness are mandated by the FCC as part of the auction. The conditions require whoever owns the spectrum to allow any device and any application to work on the network in addition to allowing wholesale resale to third parties, and should allow a reasonable interconnect with other networks.

Round 2—Did You Say Open?
If there is one thing every oligarchy fears, it is regulation. With the increasingly vocal critics of current communication industry practices—made more popular because of the iPhone—the spectre of regulation was on the horizon. Rep. Ed Markey (D-MA) had already questioned their practices in the infamous “iPhone Hearings." Google’s populist claims (backed by many smart, independent thinkers, analysts, and policy folk) of peace, brotherhood, open handsets, and open networks for all, showed people and the government a world without controls. And the iPhone made us want a world without controls.

So last week Verizon gave us a world without controls. Or at least they claim that such a world will be unveiled in 2008. The fear of Google, Apple+AT&T, the FCC, and (we would like to hope) the consumer, lead Verizon to release the following statement:


Verizon Wireless today announced that it will provide customers the option to use, on its nationwide wireless network, wireless devices, software, and applications not offered by the company. Verizon Wireless plans to have this new choice available to customers throughout the country by the end of 2008.

In early 2008, the company will publish the technical standards the development community will need to design products to interface with the Verizon Wireless network. [...] Following publication of technical standards, Verizon Wireless will host a conference to explain the standards and get input from the development community on how to achieve the company’s goals for network performance while making it easy for them to deliver devices.

Of course, the devil is in the details, but this has the potential of changing the industry. Can’t grasp the potential? Here is what Verizon CEO Lowell McAdam said:


This isn’t just phones—it could be a very small module in a gaming station, a home appliance, something that goes into your car. It doesn’t have to have the traditional distribution or volumes. [Traditionally] if a device is not going to sell hundreds of thousands, it’s hard to decide because of our scale. But now, if something only sells five, now it can be on our network.
That is fairly mind-blowing, if true. Round 3 begins with the 700MHz auction next year. Stay tuned.

Link: http://www.applematters.com/index.ph...wdown-of-2008/

[Nwahs]

Wow...great post! That is definitely and interesting article.
I agree though...I think 2008 will definitely be a big year for the wireless industry...with Google coming in...T-mobile so far behind...etc
I guess we'll all be right here on CPS to see how it pans out.

[greenblood]

Wirelessly posted (Dell X50v and/or SE K790a: Mozilla/5.0 (SymbianOS/9.1; U; en-us) AppleWebKit/413 (KHTML, like Gecko) Safari/413 es61)

I guess there'll be a big fun if Google acquires the entire DT, this'll completely overthrow the industry

[Nwahs]

I don't think Google is anywhere big enough to do that

[706VZWUser]

FCC releases full list of applicants for 700 MHz auction
Qualcomm to bid, while T-Mobile USA could sit it out


By Jeffrey Silva
Story posted: December 19, 2007 - 12:38 pm EDT

he Federal Communications Commission said it received 266 applications for the 700 MHz auction, with small and rural telephone companies dominating a field that also includes leading mobile-phone operators, Google Inc., EchoStar Satellite L.L.C., and some surprises.

Click here for complete 700 MHz auction coverage.

Nearly two-thirds of the applications were deemed incomplete and must be resubmitted with corrections by the new upfront payment deadline of Jan. 4. The auction, which is predicted to pull in as much as $15 billion for the U.S. Treasury, is set to begin Jan. 24.

AT&T Mobility and Verizon Wireless, the nation’s largest cellular carriers, plan to compete for licenses, while the other two national carriers, Sprint Nextel Corp. and T-Mobile USA Inc., apparently will sit it out. Leading regional carriers Alltel Corp., Leap Wireless International L.L.C. and MetroPCS Communications Inc. are in the mix. So is CDMA technology king Qualcomm Inc. Another 700 MHz applicant, Silicon Valley-backed startup Frontline Wireless L.L.C., plans to bid on the national commercial/public-safety license.

The cable TV and broadcasting (terrestrial and satellite) sectors are represented as well by Bright House Networks, Cox Communications Inc., Cablevision Systems Corp., EchoStar, Public Broadcasting Service and Catholic Church Brooklyn (as Trans Video Communications Inc.)

Joining Internet search giant Google, which is expected to bid on the open-access 22 megahertz C Block, is Microsoft Corp. co-founder Paul Allen, who filed as Vulcan Spectrum L.L.C.

The following applicants have an Initial filing phase status of "Accepted" by the FCC:

Adams Telcom, Inc.
Aeronet Wireless Broadband Corp.
AlasConnect, Inc.
Aristotle Inc.
AWS Spectrum, LLC
Bayou Internet, Inc.
BEK Communications Cooperative
Bend Cable Communications, LLC
Blanca Telephone Company
Blue Sky Cell, LLC
Bluegrass Wireless LLC
Bresnan Communications, Inc.
Broadband Wireless Unlimited, LLC
Budget Phone
Cavalier Wireless, LLC
Central Texas Telephone Investments, LP
Chariton Valley Communication Corporation, Inc.
Chester Telephone Company
Clearcom, Inc.
COLI INc
Command Connect, LLC
Cricket Licensee 2007, LLC
Cross Telephone Company, LLC
CTC Telcom, Inc.
Data-Max Wireless LLC
Delmarva Broadband LLC
Ellijay Telephone Company
Farmers Telecommunications Cooperative, Inc.
Farmers Telephone Company, Inc.
Fidelity Communications Company
Forum Communications Company
FTC Management Group, Inc.
Glenwood Telephone Membership, Corporation
Golden Belt Telephone Association, Inc.
Google Airwaves Inc.
Grain Spectrum LLC
Great American Broadband, Inc.
GreenFly LLC
H & B Communications, Inc.
Horry Telephone Cooperative, Inc.
Inland Cellular Telephone Company
IT&E Overseas, Inc.
KeyOn Spectrum Holdings, LLC
Kinex Networking Solutions, Inc.
Kingdom Telephone Company
Kurian, Thomas K
Lackawaxen Long Distance Company, Inc.
Landover PCS Holdings, LLC
MAC Wireless, LLC
Manti Telephone Company
Medicine Park Telephone Company, Inc.
Midwest AWS Limited Partnership
Miller, David
Mt. Vernnon.Net Inc.
MTN3B Consortium
Mulberry Cooperative Telephone Company, Inc
N.E. Colorado Wireless Technologies, Inc.
Neptuno Media
Northeast Missouri Rural Telephone Company
Northeast Nebraska Telephone Company
Northern Iowa Communications Partners, LLC
Panhandle Telecommunication Systems, Inc.
Paul Bunyan Rural Telephone Cooperative, Inc.
PBP Bidco LLC
PCS Partners, L.P.
Piedmont Rural Telephone Cooperative, Inc.
Polar Communications Mutual Aid Corporation
Public Service Wireless Services, Inc.
Red River Rural Telephone Association, Inc.
Sandhill Communications, LLC
Siskiyou Telephone Company
Small Ventures USA, L.P.
Spectrum Acquisitions, Inc.
Star Telephone Membership Corporation
Swayzee Telephone Co. Inc.
TCT West, Inc.
Terra World Communications, LLC
The Chillicothe Telephone Company
The Tri-County Telephone Association, Inc.
The World Company
Towerstream Corporation
Tri-Valley Communications, LLC
Triad 700, LLC
USA Choice Internet Services Company LLC
Valley Telephone Cooperative, Inc.
Van Buren Wireless, Inc.
Vavasi NexGen Inc.
Vermont Telephone Company, Inc.
Vulcan Spectrum LLC
Washington County Rural Telephone Cooperative, Inc
West Wisconsin Telcom Cooperative, Inc.
Wi
Wireless Communications Venture
Worldcall Inc.
WUE, Inc.
Xpressweb Internet Services, Inc.


The following applicants have an Initial filing phase status of "Incomplete" by the FCC (althought that doesn't mean they won't compete)

585 Consortium
ACS Wireless License Sub, Inc.
Advance/Newhouse Partnership
Agri-Valley Communications, Inc.
Alltel Corporation
Altazip Inc
Americas Communications LLC
AMTS Consortium
AST Telecom, LLC
AT&T Mobility Spectrum, LLC
Backline
Bascom Long Distance, Inc.
Bay Electronics, Inc.
BI Solutions
Blaze Broadband LLC Y
Blue Valley Tele-Communications, Inc.
BlueBird Telecommunications Ltd.
Bluewater Wireless, L.P.
BPS Telephone Company
Buffalo-Lake Erie Wireless Systems Co., L.L.C.
Buggs Island Telephone Cooperative
C&W Enterprises, Inc.
Cable Montana LLC
Cascade Access, L.L.C.
Cellco Partnership d/b/a Verizon Wireless
Cellular South Licenses, Inc.
Central Wisconsin Communications, Inc.
CenturyTel Broadband Wireless LLC
Chequamegon Communications Cooperative, Inc.
CHEVRON USA INC.
Choice Phone LLC
Churchill County Telephone d/b/a CC Communications
Cincinnati Bell Wireless LLC
Citizens Mutual Telephone Cooperative
CloudComm Corporation
Club 42 CM Limited Partnership
Columbia Cellular, Inc.
Comporium Wireless, LLC
Computer Techniques, Inc.
ComSouth Tellular, Inc.
Continuum 700 LLC
Cooper Fowler Media Company
Copper Valley Wireless, Inc.
Corn Belt Telephone Company, Inc.
Cox Wireless, Inc.
CRT Holdings, Inc.
CSC Spectrum Holdings LLC
CSConnect Inc.
Cumby Telephone Cooperative, Inc.
Danville Mutual Telephone Company
Day Management Corporation
Denali Spectrum License, LLC
Dragon Arch, Inc.
East Ascension Telephone Company, LLC
East Kentucky Network, LLC
Eastern Colorado Wireless II, LLC
Faithfone Wireless Incorporated
First Mile Holdings, Inc.
FMTC Wireless, Inc.
Frontier Wireless LLC Y
FWC Communications, Inc.
Glass, Laurence B
Gold Radio Group, LLC
Grand River Communication, Inc.
Granite State Long Distance, Inc.
Green Hills Area Cellular Telephone, Inc.
Greene Productions, Inc.
Guam Cellular & Paging
Hemingford Cooperative Telephone Company
hoffman, mitchell
Huxley Communications Corp.
I-700, LLC
IdeaOne Telecom Group, LLC
Independents Fiber Network, LLC
Innovative Communication Corporation
Iowa Intelegra Consortium, LLC
Iowa Telecommunications Services, Inc.
JAMES KALANZI OVERSEAS LIMITED
James Valley Cooperative Telephone Company
JENSEN, JOEL D
johnson, james w
JOYTEL WIRELESS COMMUNICATIONS INC
Kaplan Telephone Company, Inc.
KerrComm, LLC
King Street Wireless, L.P.
Kotchen, David T
KTC AWS Limited Partnership
LCDW Wireless Limited Partnership
LCFR, LLC
Lexcom, Inc.
Licenseco, LLC
Ligtel Communications, Inc.
LL License Holdings, LLC
Lynch Wireless Broadband Company, LLC
maxima international llc
MCBRIDE SPECTRUM PARTNERS, LLC
McDonald County Telephone Company
Mediapolis Telephone Company
Megrim Co
MetroPCS 700 MHz, LLC
MH Telecom, LLC
Mid-Missouri Telephone Company
Miles Communications Corp
Missouri Valley Wireless, LLC
Moore & Liberty Telephone Company
Morsetone Partners
MTA Communications, Inc.
Muenster Telephone Corporation of Texas
Muskrat Wireless, LP
National Datacast, Inc.
NatTel, LLC
Navajo Department of Information Technology
New Ulm Telecom, Inc.
North Dakota Network Company
Northern New Mexico Telecom, Inc.
Northwest Missouri Cellular Limited Partnership
NSIGHTTEL WIRELESS, LLC
Nunn Communications, LLC
OACYS Technology
Office of Spectral Ecology
PageData Holdings LLC
Palmetto Rural Telephone Cooperative, Inc.
PART-15.ORG
Pine Cellular Phones, Inc.
Pioneer Telephone Cooperative, Inc.
Poka Lambro Telecommunications, LTD
PTI Pacifica, Inc.
Puerto Rico Telephone Company, Inc.
Pulse Mobile LLC
PVT Networks, Inc.
QUALCOMM Incorporated
Rainbow Telecommunications Association, Inc.
Rand Garetto
Redwood Wireless Corp.
Reiter, Scott D
Robinson, Jack E
RONAN TELEPHONE COMPANY
Rural Telephone Service Company, Inc.
SAL Spectrum, LLC
SeaBytes, L.L.C.
Sierra Advantage, Inc.
Sierra Cellular, Inc.
Sky Com 700 MHZ, LLC
Slopeside Internet
Socket Telecom LLC
Sonar Radio Corporation
Surry Telecommunications, Inc.
Telesaurus VPC LLC
TerraNovaNet, Inc
The Pioneer Telephone Association, Inc.
The Ponderosa Telephone Co.
The S&T Telephone Cooperative Association, Inc.
Three River Telco
Toba Inlet PCS, LLC
Trans Video Communications, Inc.
Unified Communications Corporation
Union Telephone Company
United Wireless Communications Inc.
USA Broadband LLC
USCC AUCTION 73,, LLC
VentureTel 700,, Inc.
West Carolina Communications, LLC
Western Iowa Telephone Association
Whidbey Telephone Company
world network
WWW Broadband, LLC
Xanadoo 700 MHz DE, LLC
Xittel telecommunications inc.
XPEDIAN.COM, INC.
Zephyr Holdings

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[706VZWUser]

Bids near that could benefit wireless users

Auction of radio waves freed by shift to digital TV bodes more, cheaper deals

By Jon Van and Wailin Wong January 22, 2008

A prime piece of invisible real estate is going up for auction this week, and the winners of the $10 billion virtual land grab have the potential to shake up wireless communications in the United States.
The property in question is a sizable swath of the country's radio spectrum that television broadcasters are returning to the government as they convert from analog to digital systems. The frequencies, known as the 700 megahertz spectrum, are ideal for wireless communications, and 214 bidders will vie for the rare opportunity to nab a piece of the coveted spectrum. The list includes Google Inc., Verizon Wireless, AT&T Inc. and even companies with no obvious telecommunications interests, like Chevron Corp.
The auction could have far-reaching consequences for the industry and consumers, as heightened competition among carriers will increase choices for customers and push down prices. Two blocks of spectrum are configured for nationwide wireless coverage. Winning one of those blocks would allow a market leader to significantly bulk up its network or add a newcomer to the mix. As for the smaller blocks, more spectrum could strengthen a regional provider or bring coverage to rural residents.
The frequencies can handle both traditional voice service and high-speed data, facilitating the rollout of more sophisticated services like streaming media. And if Google has its way, cell phone users will have a wealth of additional choices in carriers and handsets.
The Internet titan successfully lobbied the Federal Communications Commission to require that the winner of one of the largest spectrum blocks open its network to all compatible technology. This would dismantle the wireless industry's "walled garden," where carriers dictate which handsets and services they will support.
At least partially in response to assaults on the walled-garden approach, Verizon Wireless has said that later this year it will allow any devices to connect to its network that meet its technical operating standards, reversing its long-held policy of complete control.
Erosion of the traditional business model would be welcome to consumers like Chicagoan Emily Leung, 28, who wants to get a Palm smart phone but has to wait out her current contract with U.S. Cellular, which doesn't offer those phones. Leung's friend, 27-year-old Carolyn Chong, has been with AT&T for six years but wouldn't mind greater flexibility in choosing handsets.
"LG has a lot of really awesome phones that are available in Europe but not here," Chong said. "You can get one, but you have to bring it back here and unlock it, and it's a whole process," she said in referring to South Korea's LG Group.
An open industry would also make more services available. Experts say it's likely that next year cell phone users will enjoy an experience closer to what they now get on their wired computers.
"Consumers who use Gmail on their PC want to continue using it on their mobile device," said Hamilton Sekino, a partner with Chicago-based Diamond Management & Technology Consultants.
Incumbent carriers might be reluctant to relinquish control. But they can no longer count on recruiting new customers for revenue because cell phones have spread to most of the population, and growth in voice traffic is losing dynamism. Companies have to make their data services more attractive to stay competitive, and opening new spectrum will accelerate this trend, Sekino said.
Google wants to hasten this change, and its desire for a revolution in the way consumers wirelessly access the Internet landed the company in the auction, said Robert Rosenberg, president of Boonton, N.J.-based Insight Research Corp.
"To be revolutionary, you want to get in there with a bang" and buy spectrum, Rosenberg said.
But Google's exact strategy is unclear. Another observer, John Byrne of Technology Business Research, said "Google is really the big X in this auction."
For Fred Boxa, a Chicago-based consultant with IBB Consulting, Google accomplished its goal by getting the FCC to require open networks for the choice block of spectrum. Boxa believes "Google will place its $4 billion minimum bid to be polite" but refrain from an aggressive bid.
If Google bows out, it will disappoint consumer advocates who want the company to counterbalance the market power of Verizon Wireless and AT&T. Gigi Sohn, president of Washington-based Public Knowledge, said Google is the consumer's last chance for a new national competitor and she is "cautiously pessimistic" about that happening.
Sohn said she felt that the withdrawal of Frontline, a venture by a group of Silicon Valley investors that fell short on funding for the auction, "was a real blow." Frontline had planned to build its own national network if it won.
But even if the auction doesn't produce a new national wireless operator, it will spawn enough local and regional players to assure consumers more options and lower prices when they go online, experts said. Rural consumers will have choices of broadband wireless Internet service for the first time.
"In rural areas, fewer than a third of people have access to broadband other than satellite, which provides half the speed at twice the price of what city people get," said Jeff Kohler, founder of JAB Wireless Inc., a Denver-based wireless broadband operator. "Competition will bring lower prices for everyone."
The auction starts Thursday with spectrum divided into five blocks, with some blocks divided into as many as 734 individual regions across the nation. To maximize the auction's results, the FCC has forbidden bidders to say anything publicly about their bids, strategy or anything else regarding the auction.
The FCC will post winning bids in each category but won't name the bidder. Final results, when bidding is completed, are expected in March. Winners won't be able to use their licenses until after February 2009, when the change from analog to digital TV occurs. Consumers could see new services, handsets and applications as early as summer 2009.
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